LatAm Agribusiness: 3tentoS (OW) & SLC Agricola (N): El Niño overhang persists; asymmetric setup favors TTEN

研报英文原文证据摘录

LatAm Agribusiness: 3tentoS (OW) & SLC Agricola (N): El Niño overhang persists; asymmetric setup favors TTEN

ough rain-related delays to the soybean

harvest (pushing corn planting later) or through a higher risk of drier conditions in parts

of the Center-West during the corn’s key reproductive window. Conversely, in southern

producing areas, El Niño can bring more rainfall and somewhat lower frost risk, which

can be supportive, but the net effect is highly timing- and region-dependent.

• There is no single “Brazil grain yield” outcome in strong El Niño years - impacts

have tended to be regionally offsetting, with higher flood/excess-rain risk in the South

and higher heat/drought risk more in the North/Northeast and parts of the Center-West,

which affects soy/corn differently by timing. In practice, national-average yields in those

years have often been driven as much by where the weather anomalies hit (and when) as

by the El Niño label itself, and by the underlying technology/area trends that can mask

weather effects in aggregate.

• For SLC Agrícola, a strong El Niño typically brings a downside skew around

delayed planting/harvest and localized drought, plus potential delays on the soybean–

safrinha calendar. This is partly mitigated by geographic diversification, crop mix (soy/

corn/cotton), and commercial risk management (e.g., hedging/insurance) where

applicable. That said, approximately 49% of SLC’s total planted area is in Brazil’s

Northeast region -Maranhao (217 k hectares) + Bahia (158 k hectares) + Piaiui (35k

hectares) - which is generally more exposed to drier conditions, though the company has

been investing in irrigation to offset this risk.

• For 3tentos, El Niño-related impacts are typically more indirect, flowing through