Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Collins- FoodsCollins(CKF.AX)Foods (CKF.AX)

Quality Business, Challenging Cost Cycle

PRICE TARGET A$9.10 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Our price target represents the average of our fundamental value range, derived from two Quality operator, but costs drive the near-

methodologies – DCF and P/E. We use DCF (7.7% WACC, 3% terminal growth rate) to term outlook: CKF benefits from strong unit

capture the long-term cash flow generation of the business. DCF valuation A$10.50/shr. We economics and a value-led offering that

use P/E (15x forward P/E multiple which is -1Std below mid-cycle). P/E valuation A$7.7/shr. supports resilient demand. However, despite

the recent de‑rating, the outlook remains

A$11.31 highly uncertain, with COGS and labour

Consensus Price Target Distribution A$8.80 A$13.50 inflation set to pressure margins in FY27. To

MS PT become more constructive, we require

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates evidence of management’s ability to manage

costs and deliver operating margins in FY27

ahead of our forecasts.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

AUD

75% Overweight

A$10.00A$10.00(+22.70%)A$10.00(+22.70%)(+22.70%) 25% Equal-weight

10 0% Underweight

A$9.10A$9.10(+11.66%)A$9.10(+11.66%)(+11.66%) MS Rating

A$8.15A$8.15A$8.15

7.5 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

A$6.80A$6.80(-16.56%)A$6.80(-16.56%)(-16.56%) Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Negative

Technology Diffusion: Positive

2.5 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE A$10.00 BASE CASE A$9.10 BEAR CASE A$6.80