GQG Partners: Model Update 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

GQG Partners: Model Update 2Q26

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 June 2026

GQG Partners Neutral

GQG.AX, GQG AU

Model Update 2Q26 Price (30 Jun 26):A$1.45

Price Target (Jun-27):A$1.70

We have revised our forecasts to reflect movements in the investment markets over Australia

2Q26 comprising of the period spanning 31-Mar-26 to 29-Jun-26. We have

Insurance and Diversified Financials

previously made earnings changes for GQG’s May-26 FUM and flows update, so

we looked at how the equity markets moved in the month of Jun-26. Equity markets Siddharth Parameswaran AC

were volatile in the month of Jun-26 but ended the period with some decline. As (61-2) 9003-8629

siddharth.x.parameswaran@jpmorgan.com

for GQG, they appeared to have modestly outperformed benchmarks, driven by J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

their defensive stance which should see FUM resilience in risk-off conditions, but Tharan Jeyathasan

lags benchmarks in growth-led rallies. While net outflows have shown moderation (61-2) 9003-6098

in the last two months, we think these could accelerate back if markets were to tharan.jeyathasan@jpmorgan.com

continue a growth led rally. Since early June 2026, the USD has strengthened by J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

1.4% vs AUD, helping GQG’s valuation in AUD. Key points to note are: Rishi S Parihar

(91-22) 6157-3775

• Market movements in 1Q CY26: Based on GQG’s disclosed asset allocation, rishi.parihar@jpmchase.com

we have assumed 2QCY26 (to 29/06) market movements of ~1% for GQG’s J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

total FUM in USD. This is a slight downgrade from our prior expectation for

a market gain of ~2.6% for 2Q CY26, reflecting weaker equity markets in the Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

month of Jun-26.