2Q26 Prelims: Unit Profit Continued to Improve QoQ; Beat: YTO Express | Asia Pacific

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Prelims: Unit Profit Continued to Improve QoQ; Beat: YTO Express | Asia Pacific

Update

June 30, 2026 11:49 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MYTO Express | Asia Pacific Tenny Song

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Prelims: Unit Profit Tenny.Song@morganstanley.comQianlei Fan, CFA +852 3963-1737

Qianlei.Fan@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1875

Continued to Improve QoQ; Evan Chen

Research Associate

Evan.Chen@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7317

Beat

Reaction to earnings

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS YTO Express Group Co Ltd (600233.SS, 600233 CG)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure | China

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Key Takeaways Price target Rmb26.50

Up/downside to price target (%) 68

2Q26 unit profit continued to improve – Rmb0.02-0.06 QoQ despite ASP Shr price, close (Jun 30, 2026) Rmb15.75

softness, which beats our expectations. 52-Week Range Rmb22.86-12.59

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 3,423

We believe YTO's ASP softness reflects parcel mix changes rather than Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb53,908

EV, curr (mn) Rmb53,379

reinitiation of price-based competition. Anti-involution initiatives remain in place. Avg daily trading value (mn) Rmb415

YTO is trading at 9x 2026 P/E on our current estimate, which we view as Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

attractive. We expect consensus earnings forecasts to ris. OW. EPS (Rmb)** 1.26 1.78 2.02 2.26

EPS (Rmb)§ 1.23 1.71 1.93 2.24

Revenue, net (Rmb mn) 75,277 83,478 91,022 99,743

YTO announced 1H26 preliminary net profit of Rmb3.1-3.4bn, up 69-86% YoY. EBITDA (Rmb mn) 8,058 10,491 11,992 13,404

ModelWare net inc 4,219 5,901 6,730 7,541