Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Update

June 30, 2026 12:32 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MCarlsberg A/S | Europe Sarah Simon

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Sarah.Simon@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6064

Carlsberg A/S (CARLb.CO, CARLB DC)

What’s Changed Beverages | Denmark

Carlsberg A/S (CARLb.CO) From To Stock Rating Overweight

Price Target DKr 1,035.00 DKr 1,030.00 Industry View In-Line

Price target DKr 1,030.00

Bull Case DKr 1,305.00 DKr 1,350.00

Shr price, close (Jun 29, 2026) DKr 874.40

Base Case DKr 1,035.00 DKr 1,030.00 52-Week Range DKr 1,015.00-

Bear Case DKr 775.00 DKr 815.00 737.40

Updated Components Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS

EPS (DKr)** 60.81 66.57 70.21 74.68

Investment Thesis Prior EPS (DKr)** - 67.01 73.04 77.68

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

Risk Reward for Carlsberg A/S (CARLb.CO) has been updated e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

We refresh estimates to reflect company commentary, weather, scanner data and

the issuance of the hybrid bond. All in, we lower FY OSG from 4.0% to 3.9%,

reflecting weaker volumes in Q2, particularly in Asia, where poor weather has

impacted the China business more than we had previously anticipated. Our Q2 OSG

now stands at 2.6%. Similarly, we now see FY26 organic EBIT growth of 4.3%, from

5.2%, reflecting the more cautious stance on group volume and OSG. We have

updated our estimates to reflect the hybrid bond issuance, and associated early debt

redemption, which has a modestly accretive impact on EPS for FY26 (because the

coupon on one of the two hybrids will not be paid in FY26), but c2% dilutive from

FY27. All in, we reduce FY26 EPS by 1% but FY27 by 4%.