The Sky Is Not Blue Enough

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Sky Is Not Blue Enough

India | Pharmaceuticals

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEThe Sky Is Not Blue Enough

We stretch our estimates for two key drivers; Sema in Canada (higher RATING UNDERPERFORM

market share despite price pressure from competition), and Abatacept in US PRICE INR1,376.30^

(launch in early CY27 despite outstanding plant observations). Our FY27-28 PRICE TARGET | % TO PT INR1,040 | -24%

EPS est increase by 3-9% vs base est and we est fair value at INR1,540 52W HIGH-LOW INR1,414.40 - INR1,149.00

(based on 24x Mar-28 EPS), which suggests a modest 13% upside even in FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 73.3% | 30.81

an optimistic scenario. We believe risk-reward is unfavourable and reiterate MARKET CAP INR1.1T | $12.1B

our Underperform rating. TICKER DRRD IN

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Semaglutide Canada - Upside, But Not Durable: Our base case revenue from Semaglutide in

Canada is ~USD100m/50m for FY27/28 assuming a peak share of 30% and 65% price erosion RATING UNDERPERFORM

as per Health Canada mandated tiered-pricing. In a blue sky scenario, we est 35% peak market TICKER RDY

share in FY27 and 20% in FY28 implying sales of USD122mn/84mn in FY27/28 respectively.

PRICE $14.86^

However, we believe incremental competition (six filers awaiting approval) will make it difficult

to sustain this market position. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $11.40 | -23%

Abatacept - complexity to limit competition: Dr Reddy's is confident of a USFDA approval FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

for Abatacept IV (USD1.35bn TAM) in end CY26 despite recent US FDA observations at

2027 2028 2027 2028

its biologics plant in Bachupally. Our base case of ~USD135mn/113mn sales in FY28/29

REV NM NM NA NA

assumes a delay in approval of 6m.