Schneider Electric: Our Initial Take on Cognite deal – very expensive, slightly unhelpful, thankfully small

研报英文原文证据摘录

Schneider Electric: Our Initial Take on Cognite deal – very expensive, slightly unhelpful, thankfully small

Phil Buller AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 3493-9403 30 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

phil.buller@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Schneider Electric (Overweight; Price Target: €335.00)

Investment Thesis

• 2025 was a blip, the secular outgrowth story is unchanged. Schneider has

unequivocally, in our view, got the best portfolio when it comes to exposure to attractive

secular end markets overall, and continues to offer upper-quartile organic growth and

earnings progression, second only to Siemens Energy. This was also true for 2025,

however, multiples reflected that fact in late 2024 and marginal downgrades to

consensus (FX and tariff driven) in 2025 saw multiples compress, to the extent the shares

now offer an attractive entry point.

• New CFO is important. The somewhat uninspiring 2025 was uncharacteristic of

Schneider. However, we think this can largely be attributed to tariff and FX headwinds

vis-à-vis elevated market expectations. With a new CFO now in place and a solid Q1

behind us, we see a confidence rebuilding period and multiple expansion opportunity

ahead for 2026.

Valuation

Our December 2027 Price Target is based on a reverse DCF valuation. The 12-month

forward target multiple is 20.5x EV/adj. EBITA, applied to our 2028 forecasts. The multiple

takes into account the through-cycle growth, margin, cost of capital and asset intensity.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

• Management. Investors are struggling with the recent change in financial execution

and are wondering if this is in any way a delayed reaction to the unexpected ousting of

Peter Herweck c.12 months ago. In our view, Schneider is generally very well managed