Stockland Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Stockland Model Update

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

01 July 2026

Stockland Overweight

SGP.AX, SGP AU

Model Update Price (30 Jun 26):A$4.08

Price Target (Dec-26):A$5.60

We have updated our forecasts following our residential property tours to Brisbane Australia

and Melbourne this month (see our note) which included visits to 6 Stockland

Australian REITs

assets. Our key takeaways for SGP were: 1) Queensland, which accounts for 48%

of SGP’s MPC pipeline, remains a standout market; 2) Victoria (26% of pipeline) Richard Jones, CFA AC

is materially softer but conditions are more localised, and perhaps better than we (61-3) 9633-4038

richard.b.jones@jpmorgan.com

had anticipated; and 3) land lease communities are performing well, with the asset

Connor Eldridge

class showing relative strength versus traditional residential. Stockland is down (61-2) 9003-6415

-29% CYTD and -39% since its Oct-2025 peak (ASX200 REITs down -7% and connor.eldridge@jpmorgan.com

-13% respectively), reflecting a shifting view towards the Australian housing Adam West

market. We acknowledge the rate and budget-driven headwinds for SGP over the (61-2) 9003-8010

medium term (albeit potentially a short term beneficiary; see our post budget adam.west@jpmorgan.com

note), and have revisited our forecasts accordingly. Stockland trades on 11.6x J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

FY26E FFO (was 15.9x at start of the year, 18.7x Oct-2025), generates ~2/3rds of

its FFO from its investment management business and has a 450MW DC pipeline Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

which we ascribe zero value to in our valuation. We maintain our Price Target of FFO per share (A$)

$5.60 and retain our Overweight recommendation. 2025A 2026E 2027E

H1 0.11 0.14A 0.14

H2 0.23 0.23 0.23

• Earnings Changes.