Veolia Environnement (VIE FP): Buy: Expecting volume improvement and resilient underlying growth

研报英文原文证据摘录

Veolia Environnement (VIE FP): Buy: Expecting volume improvement and resilient underlying growth

29 June 2026

Veolia Environnement (VIE FP) EquitiesMulti-Utilities

Buy: Expecting volume improvement and resilient

underlying growth France

◆ We expect resilient underlying growth trends in 2Q; Waste

MAINTAIN BUY

volume recovery balanced against higher fuel costs

TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)◆ Clean Earth acquisition completed, doubling US hazardous

waste footprint and providing scale benefits 40.00 40.00

◆ Maintain Buy rating and EUR40.00 target price SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

36.15 +10.7%

1H 2026 preview: expecting solid results; Clean Earth deal completed. Veolia (as of 25 Jun 2026)

announces 1H 2026 results on 30 July 2026. We do not anticipate any material

MARKET DATA

disruption to the underlying growth trends, with organic EBITDA growth in the lower Market cap (EURm) 26,841 Free float 95%

half of the 5-6% guidance range. Volumes should be supported by a normalisation of Market cap (USDm) 30,517 BBG VIE FP

3m ADTV (USDm) 72 RIC VIE.PA

the weather conditions that disrupted the Waste business in Europe and the US in

1Q. Higher recyclate prices could also be a small positive, with European recycled FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (EUR)

paper and plastic prices stronger in 2Q. Higher fuel costs will likely be a headwind in Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

HSBC EPS 2.24 2.44 2.63 2.96

2Q. While indexation formulas cover 70% of revenue, there are contractual time lags, HSBC EPS (prev) 2.24 2.44 2.63 2.96

and we would expect modest near-term margin pressure due to higher energy costs Change (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Consensus EPS 2.21 2.38 2.62 2.87

in the Water and Waste segments. Furthermore, we expect top-line growth in Water PE (x) 16.1 14.8 13.7 12.2