ASEAN FIRST TO MARKET

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ASEAN FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

ASEAN First to Market 30 June 2026

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Merdeka Copper Gold (Benny Kurniawan, CFA) (MDKA IJ, OW, PT Rp3,400), Indonesia

1Q26 results in line with JPM but better vs Street; run-rate likely to sustain as Pani ramps up

MDKA reported 1Q26 results that were in line with our estimates but ahead of consensus. 1Q26 NPATMI stood at US$57mn vs

a loss last year, accounting for 24/34% of JPM/Consensus estimates. Results are admittedly backward looking and the share

price has corrected 19% in the last 3 months, underperforming JCI by ~3% as the gold price has declined by -11%. We are

adjusting our estimates and PT lower, mainly reflecting 1) lower gold price assumption to align with the latest forward curve (-

11% in FY26E), and 2) higher cost assumptions on MDKA's HPAL operations. On our revised numbers, FY26E NPATMI falls

23% to US$226mn, while FY27/28E decline by 25/23%. Consequently, we cut our Jun-27 PT by 15.6% to IDR3,400 (from

IDR4,030 previously). Despite the cut, we maintain our positive stance as we expect MDKA’s swing to profitability to be

sustained this year, supported by (1) higher commodity prices vs last year across its portfolio, 2) better spreads on RKEF

operations and 3) first material gold output from the Pani mine, ramping to ~100koz vs nil a year ago. While we acknowledge

that there could be near-term headwinds from a rising rate environment, we believe the improvement in production and spreads

will continue to sustain MDKA’s profitability. We expect the Street to revise earnings estimates positively following the results,

and we maintain our OW rating on the stock.

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Arnanto Januri) (PGAS IJ, OW, PT Rp2,150), Indonesia

Thoughts on the new $13/mmbtu gas price cap