Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp: Earnings uptrend sustains; Buy with a higher TP

研报英文原文证据摘录

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp: Earnings uptrend sustains; Buy with a higher TP

Global Markets Research

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp 2330.TW 30 June 2026

2330 TT

EQUITY: FOUNDRY

RatingEarnings uptrend sustains; Buy with a higher TP Remains Buy

Target priceTurning aggressive on CoW plan (despite bottleneck in Increased from TWD 3,425.00WoS); price hike scale and scope noteworthy TWD 2,820.00

AI demand surge (unsurprisingly) changes TSMC’s mindset about expansion Closing26 June price2026 TWD 2,340.00

We keep the AI bellwether TSMC in our core AI semi holding. We expect TSMC to deliver strong

revenue growth in 2026F/27F (+37%/+30%, in USD terms), monetizing full fab loadings and Implied upside +46.4%

another round of price hikes (assume for wafer-outs starting in Jan-27). While we previously

expected a severely constrained Asia AI semi and server supply chain throughout 2026F (report), Market Cap (USD mn) 1,902,905.3

the scope of supply/demand mismatch has broadened (report). We believe TSMC will be more ADT (USD mn) 2,704.4

aggressive than before in capacity builds, and we believe it targets 2,000kpcs CoWoS in 2027F

(more precisely, “CoW” capacity; vs. our previous estimate of up to 1,350kpcs) by hastening its Relative performance chart

tooling pace in AP7/AP8. The pace of advanced node (N5/N3) supply addition in 2026-27E, on the

other hand, remains broadly steady with the planned N3 builds at Fab 18 and cross-node

optimization at Fab 15/18, while the majority of greenfield formations will come online after 2027E

(N3 in the US/Japan). Yet we only model in 1,800kpcs of “CoWoS” output since turnkey volume

could be constrained by key components in the WoS stage such as IC substrates, suggesting