J.P.Morgan ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY RESEARCH

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J.P.Morgan ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY RESEARCH

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 30 June 2026

Top Stories

Australian Banks (Andrew Triggs)

Tax matters: Lessons on house prices and credit growth from across the ditch

The Australian housing market is facing a period of stress, with recent proposed changes to investor tax policies set against a

backdrop of unaffordable housing markets across most of the country. In this note, we look at the NZ experience over the last 5

years, which has seen changes to tax policies, rising interest rates, additional housing supply, and slower immigration drive a

17% reduction in nominal property prices and ~30+% reduction in real prices. While tempting to blame tax changes alone,

rising supply has been a key driver, with a higher rental vacancy rate driving a soggy recovery in prices. With Australian house

price declines likely, we have already factored in a reduction in the average major bank Australian housing loan growth to ~4%

in FY27/28, while we see a pickup in NZ to 5%-6%. Negative wealth effects can’t be ruled out, which would deepen major bank

share price underperformance. The NZ experience of lower house prices, a pickup in first home buyer demand to ~35% of new

loans, and improved affordability suggest the adjustment may be worth the pain. Our preferred large cap names (MQG and

ANZ, both OW) have less exposure to Australian housing, while CBA and WBC (both UW) are more exposed and lack

valuation support.

Australia and New Zealand: Weekly Prospects (Ben K Jarman)

The RBA’s June meeting minutes will attract attention for the Board's deliberations behind the unanimous decision to hold at

4.35% following three consecutive hikes. The "well placed" framing of policy in the concluding paragraph of the policy