CONSUMER CASH PILE

研报英文原文证据摘录

CONSUMER CASH PILE

CONSUMER CASH PILE JPM US MARKET INTELLIGENCE

technical recession until 22Q2 was revised higher into positive territory. Feroli forecasts real GDP

growth of 1.8% Q4 / Q4 for 2026 (note is here).

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish. The major driver of the view are steps to

normalize the SoH supply chain crunch. Combine that with (i) a macro picture that remains

resilient based on the strength of household and corporate balance sheets with potential tailwinds

from OBBBA and labor productivity; (ii) a strong earnings outlook; and, (iii) an improving

geopolitical environment. Risks to this view are (1) a deterioration in US labor markets; (2)

weaker than expected earnings and / or lack of guidance from MegaCap / Large-cap companies;

and (3) a spike to bond yields / bond vol likely due to a material shift higher in inflation

expectations. Returning to our tactical stock view, there is the potential for some additional

choppiness into month-end from both period-end rebalancing and the US / Iran conflict. We look

for markets to stabilize and trade higher into earnings which unofficially kick off on July 14.

• NEW MONETIZATION MENU – We think it makes sense to maintain the Tech / Cyclicals barbell

while adding Healthcare exposure as low correlated long. Within Tech, we like AI, Memory, and

Semis despite the recent pullback and elevated vol regime, so we would consider adding some

hedges from other parts of Tech or factor hedges such as Beta / Momentum. Regarding

Cyclicals, a combination of Airlines, Banks, Homebuilders, Retailers, and Transports; we would

avoid Autos given USMCA risk. In Healthcare, we like broad-based exposure across the sector

including Biotech, MedTech, and Pharma. Internationally, we Korea, parts of Latam, and Taiwan