Domination in leading-edge foundry continues; OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Domination in leading-edge foundry continues; OW

IdeaM

2Q26 earnings and 3Q26 guidance preview

TSMC will be hosting its 2Q26 earnings call on July 16. We expect 2Q26 revenue to be in

line with the guidance from strong AI and peripheral demand. We now expect 2Q26

revenue to be up 11-12% Q/Q vs. the company's revenue guidance of up 10% Q/Q USD at

the midpoint. Our gross margin estimate of 67.4% is at the higher end of the guidance

range of 65.5-67.5%.

Looking ahead to 3Q26, we forecast revenue to be up in the low to mid-teens Q/Q given

strong demand in both 3nm and 2nm products, including but not limited to Rubin, TPU,

CPU, networking, etc. The margin should further improve Q/Q in our view with better

utilization rate, but potentially offset by higher costs/depreciation.

Key questions to ask during the earnings call:

• How will TSMC address competition from Samsung foundry (strong memory

profits) and Intel foundry (US policy support)? In that case, could TSMC hike wafer

prices in 2027 and further improve gross margin?

• Memory cost impact on demand: is TSMC seeing that in foundry orders?

• How could TSMC utilize advanced packaging capacity if customers choose other

sources of foundry/OSAT support? Will consumer/networking demand start to

consume meaningful amounts of advanced packaging by 2027?

• How big does TSMC see the CPU TAM after the agentic AI boom? Does TSMC see

more CPU outsourcing from IDM customers and potentially server CPU?

• Given the supply constraint from equipment suppliers as well, could TSMC further

increase capex and capacity by getting sufficient EUV or other semi equipment?

Exhibit 1: 2Q26 earnings and 3Q26 guidance preview

2Q26 3Q26

(NT$ bn) Guidance Preliminary MS Est. Consensus Guidance MS Est. Consensus