JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Holiday Week Setup: Oil Risk Premium Fades, Rates Asymmetry and Equity Rotation Beyond Crowded AI Hardware

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JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Holiday Week Setup: Oil Risk Premium Fades, Rates Asymmetry and Equity Rotation Beyond Crowded AI Hardware

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

29 June 2026

Don't look now, but the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 14%(!) in the first 6 months of the year. If this

holds to year end it would be the largest spread in over 20 years

RTY vs SPX Normalized YTD

Adding a difficult layer for the go-forward, is the unclear interest-rate picture. On one hand, the decline in oil prices has given

way to a move lower in yields (belly, out the curve) which relieves pressure on valuations. Conversely, the recent strength of the

economy amidst a relief in energy prices is pushing the Fed to hold on to their hawkish bias (front-end of the curve remains under

pressure with >1 hike priced through the end of the year). A merited stance is to believe that if the Fed's hawkish bias was

predicated on higher inflation, and inflation pressures are easing, then the rate curve should re-price to lower yields more broadly.

Contextually, positioning in interest rates is still paid (short), especially in the front end, meaning positioning asymmetry is also

towards a move lower in rates (fixed income rally). Generally, if looking to set up for this rate reversal via equity markets, an

analogous view would be to favor small cap gains (over SPX / NDX). The problem is, the aforementioned historic

outperformance of RTY over SPX doesn't setup a great entry point. Additionally, there are growing concerns around other

inflationary pressures (namely bubbling within tech hardware pricing).

This dilemma continues incentivize more specific (single-stock/sector) investment. As a result, single-stock vol remains heavily

elevated over index vol...