Quick Silver: Semis - Time to Take Chips Off the Table?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Quick Silver: Semis - Time to Take Chips Off the Table?

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT AC (44-20) 7134-0412 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nscott.silver@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 29 June 2026

Scott Silver

+44 207 134 0412

scott.silver@jpmorgan.com

The key debate across investors at the moment is whether recent volatility marks the beginning of the end for the semi’s rally

or simply a more difficult period of trading within an AI-driven supercycle. The overwhelming view remains that the

fundamental cycle is intact, with little evidence to suggest demand has materially deteriorated. Instead, investors increasingly

view the next 8-10 weeks as a challenging period from a positioning and risk-management perspective rather than the start of

a structural downturn.

Heading into July earnings, expectations are generally constructive. Most believe the quarter itself should be solid, with the

potential for a Micron-style setup whereby stocks that have been under pressure respond positively to better-than-feared

numbers and commentary. The bigger question is whether there is meaningful follow-through after earnings. Following an

exceptional run across the group, many feel valuations have been pulled forward significantly, with investors increasingly

underwriting earnings and demand 12-24 months out. As a result, while companies may continue to execute well

fundamentally, there is less conviction that strong results alone will be enough to drive another leg higher over the summer.

Seasonality is also becoming an increasingly important consideration. Once we get earnings out the way, conference activity

slowing and news flow typically lighter through August, many investors are questioning whether they want to carry elevated