In Case You Missed It: U.S. Most Read Research: Week of June 22 – June 26

研报英文原文证据摘录

In Case You Missed It: U.S. Most Read Research: Week of June 22 – June 26

North America Equity Research

U.S. Most Read Research 29 June 2026

In Case You Missed It: U.S. Most Read Research

Week of June 22 – June 26

Global Equity Strategy (Dubravko Lakos-Bujas/Bhupinder Singh) - 24 June 2026

2026 Mid-Year Outlook

Our equity view started the year very constructive on the back of the US-led AI supercycle. So far YTD, consensus earnings

growth has been revised higher to ~20% on average for the next two years, in lockstep with a near doubling of AI capex. In

hindsight, we should have been even more positive on the outlook for S&P 500 earnings growth, which has seen YTD

upgrades to both 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates of ~10%. This type of positive revision is unprecedented and is typically

seen only after a shock or post-recession. In this case, the positive shock coincided with the last earnings season, when

companies raised capex budgets, followed by the April 7th Anthropic headline confirming the viability of AI Services. Against

this backdrop, and with the US/Iran working towards a peace deal, we are approaching our “Blue Sky” scenario (see

AI & Security Resurgence) and increasing our S&P 500 year-end price target to 7,800. However, it’s important to keep

in mind that the path upwards will likely be non-linear, as the market will need to clear various hurdles. Strong back-to-

back earnings have reset the bar higher heading into the 2Q season, making it more difficult for companies to significantly

surprise to the upside on both earnings and capex. Additionally, extreme crowding in the Momentum factor, especially in Low

Quality and Speculative Growth segments (i.e., 2nd and 3rd order AI plays), is at risk of a reversal and continues to face a high