Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Verisure- VerisurePLC (VSURE.ST)PLC (VSURE.ST)

Security Services Superiority

PRICE TARGET €18.50 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

recurring & scalable growth,We value Verisure on a DCF basis, using a 7.5% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate. We cross ▪Defensive,

reference this with quality compounder peer multiples. bolstered by a vertically integrated, full-

service premium security model and €16.98

investment in industry-leading innovation,

Consensus Price Target Distribution €14.00 €22.00 which captures an outsized share of secular

MS PT

market growth.Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates (<4%) across a diversified ▪Low penetration

geographic footprint provides multiple

runways for multi-year growth and margin

RISK REWARD CHART expansion opportunity. Quality customer

base drives industry low attrition at ~7%.

underpinned by best-in-class EUR €27.00€27.00(+177.72%)€27.00(+177.72%)(+177.72%) ▪Valuation

growth and profitability: The business offers

one of the highest organic growth rates

24 (~15% 10y CAGR) and margins (24% EBIT) in

the sector, ranking top tier on our Best

Business Models framework.

18 €18.50€18.50(+90.29%)€18.50(+90.29%)(+90.29%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

12 100%Overweight

€9.72€9.72€9.72 0% Equal-weight

€10.00€10.00(+2.86%)€10.00(+2.86%)(+2.86%) 0% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Risk Reward ThemesKey: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Pricing Power: Positive

Secular Growth: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE €27.00 BASE CASE €18.50 BEAR CASE €10.00