JPM E&P, Integrateds, and Refiners: 10 Key Takeaways from 2026 JPM Natural Resources Conference: Macro Uncertainty Overshadows Favorable Micro Updates

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JPM E&P, Integrateds, and Refiners: 10 Key Takeaways from 2026 JPM Natural Resources Conference: Macro Uncertainty Overshadows Favorable Micro Updates

M Commodities team lowered its oil price forecast as OECD

commercial inventory draws came in below expectations while demand losses were

larger, implying less upward pressure on crude; however, commercial participants

appear to have preserved private inventories despite strong prompt premia, relying more

on SPR releases and faster demand adjustment to balance the system. Sector commentary

echoed this disconnect, with refiners noting that demand-curtailing signals never fully

materialized and that the paper/physical crude price divergence will result in capture

headwinds similar to 2022. Producers framed the muted price response as difficult to

reconcile with depleted commercial stocks, disrupted trade routes, a 0.5-1 MMBo/d

seasonal demand step-up, limited spare capacity, and a higher geopolitical risk premium.

Looking ahead, we expect inventory refill to remain the key swing factor across crude

and products, as commercial stocks and SPR barrels likely need to be rebuilt while

product inventories remain tight and SoH normalization may prove more gradual than

headlines imply.

2. Resource expansion remains a key theme. In a depleting business where producers are

ultimately price takers, we believe the conference reinforced that the market will

continue to reward companies that can show credible drillbit-led resource expansion,

particularly as the U.S. shale complex matures and the conversation shifts toward

inventory depth, reinvestment durability, and the ability to compound intrinsic value over

a longer time horizon.

• APA. The company provided a constructive update on its exploration program in