AV Roadmap, June 2026: Tweaking N-T Waymo Estimates Lower, But No Change to Overall Trajectory & Our AV Optimism; Zoox & Nuro/Lucid Launches Key for Uber in 2H26

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AV Roadmap, June 2026: Tweaking N-T Waymo Estimates Lower, But No Change to Overall Trajectory & Our AV Optimism; Zoox & Nuro/Lucid Launches Key for Uber in 2H26

has started deploying Ojai robotaxis

for public rides. Ojai is purpose-built and will be the first vehicle rolled out with the 6th-

generation Waymo Driver. The 6th-generation system is modular, and is designed to be

integrated into multiple vehicle types, w/Zeekr and Hyundai Ioniq 5 already confirmed.

Initially, Ojai will be made available to select riders in SF, LA, and Phoenix and the rides

will be free of charge as Waymo looks to gather feedback from users before adding more

cities over time. Another reason for the free rides in CA is that Waymo currently doesn’t

have permission to carry paying passengers inside the Ojai, with the CPUC likely to make

a decision about the Ojai, and a proposed expansion into the East Bay and parts of

Southern California, in the coming months. We expect 2,000+ Ojais to be deployed this

year with fleet size ramping more meaningfully as Waymo scales production to tens of

thousands of units per year at its Mesa factory. 4) Texas AV Fleet Update. As shown in

Fig. 4, Waymo has 640 AVs registered in Texas, followed by Avride at 317, and the rest

with less than 100. Interestingly, Tesla has only 84 vehicles registered even after

expanding to Dallas and Houston this year after launching in Austin last year. We note

that the size of the fleet is not tied to commercial operations, as companies like Zoox and

Nuro are not operating commercially yet. But the numbers do show Waymo’s expanding

presence in Texas having launched in Austin March 2025, and recently expanding to

Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. We also highlight that of the 640 AVs deployed by