Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Update

June 29, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MKuehne und Nagel International AG | Europe Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4623

Kuehne und Nagel International AG (KNIN.S, KNIN SE)

What’s Changed Transport | Switzerland

Kuehne und Nagel International AG (KNIN.S) From To Stock Rating Equal-weight

Price Target SFr 179.00 SFr 184.00 Industry View In-Line

Price target SFr 184.00

Bull Case SFr 240.00 SFr 248.00

Shr price, close (Jun 26, 2026) SFr 193.70

Base Case SFr 179.00 SFr 184.00 52-Week Range SFr 200.70- 147.40

Bear Case SFr 140.00 SFr 144.00

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Updated Components

EPS (SFr)** 7.43 8.08 8.12 9.00

EPS

Prior EPS (SFr)** - 7.83 8.11 8.92

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Risk Reward for Kuehne und Nagel International AG (KNIN.S) has

been updated

Reason for change

FY26e EBIT +3%. Estimates refreshed before Q2 earnings.

Higher yields assumed in Sea and Air reflecting spot strength. Downside risk to

yields into 2H on capacity normalisation in Air, especially on M.East routes / capacity

additions in Sea, nevertheless YTD has been boosted by disruptions. Little change to

Road. Contract Logistics boosted by tech vertical. We see scope for KN to upgrade

FY26e EBIT guidance with our estimates of CHF1.4bn at the top end of the range

(CHF1.25-CHF1.4bn). Price target moves to CHF184, +3%. Growth into FY27 assumed

to be more moderate as we lap disruption-driven spike in Air and Sea yields. Margins

defended post cost cutting efforts delivered in FY26.