Updating Estimates: Breedon Group PLC | Europe

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Updating Estimates: Breedon Group PLC | Europe

Update

June 29, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MBreedon Group PLC | Europe Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analyst

Updating Estimates Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.comDaniel Khajenouri +44 20 7425-4623

What’s Changed Daniel.Khajenouri@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3065

Peter Ajose-Adeogun

Breedon Group PLC (BREE.L) From To Equity Analyst

Price Target 474p 436p Peter.Ajose-Adeogun@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1618

We incorporate the Falling Springs acquisition and weaker Breedon Group PLC (BREE.L, BREE LN)

Building & Construction | United Kingdom

product pricing trends in the GB market. FY26e/27e EBITDA -

Stock Rating Overweight

4%/-6%. We don’t ignore very weak demand trends in GB, but Industry View In-Line

Price target 436p

FCF valuation more than reflects the challenges. Strong cash Shr price, close (Jun 26, 2026) 310p

generation and asymmetric risk/reward keep us Overweight. 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) 401-271p£1,048

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* £573

FY26e/27e EBITDA -4%/-6%. Changes reflect: 1) production pricing assumptions EV, curr (mn)* £1,560

lowered in the UK reflecting PPI trends for cement, concrete and aggregates. * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Cement PPI tracking -3% YoY in H1 with little offset from RMX and aggs pricing. No Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

change to US trends. 2) lower volume trends in GB with the Mineral Products Sales / Revenue 1,714 1,749 1,844 1,939

(£mn)**

Association highlighting continued demand declines across a number of product EBITDA (£mn)** 279 282 302 331

categories. Housebuilding is a notable drag and we are cautious on the pace of EBIT (£mn)** 170 169 186 209

EPS (p)** 31.9 29.5 33.3 38.8

recovery (see here). 3) Falling Spring acquisition.