The Weekly Worldview: The Capex Cycle in an Asian Context

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The Weekly Worldview: The Capex Cycle in an Asian Context

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June 29, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Economic Briefing | North America Seth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

The Weekly Worldview: The Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)+1 212 761-0370

Rajeev Sibal

Senior Global EconomistCapex Cycle in an Asian Context Rajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.com +971 4 709-7201

The fading oil shock strengthens Asia’s macro backdrop just as Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Arunima Sinha

Global Economistits AI-led export upcycle broadens into a more durable industrial

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

capex cycle. In the US, the capex cycle remains AI-led and highly

import-intensive, with a meaningful share of the impulse flowing Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.

Chiwoong Lee

Principal Global Economistthrough to Asia.

Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8920

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMAs we see if the oil shock is behind us, focus returns to AI, capex, and the growth Mayank Phadke, CFA

implications. In the US, AI capex is critical, but in GDP accounting terms a significant Economist

Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

share of investment is offset by imports. Tracking these flows shows that much of

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

this spending is on exports from Asia, raising the question of how the region is

Priyan Mody

deploying this capital. Economist

Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

Our Chief Asia Economist, alongside our broader economics team in Asia, has

written extensively about the broadening industrial capex cycle driven, at least

initially, by strong demand for Asian exports. What began as a narrow trade upcycle