RTD on the mend, whisky still maturing

研报英文原文证据摘录

RTD on the mend, whisky still maturing

Global Markets Research

Bairun Investment Holding 002568.SZ 002568 CH 26 June 2026

EQUITY: Food and Beverage

RTD on the mend, whisky still maturing RatingStarts at Buy

Initiate at Buy with a TP of CNY19.63, implying 37.3% Target price

Starts at CNY 19.63upside

Initiate at Buy with a TP of CNY19.63, implying 37.3% upside Closing price CNY 14.30 25 Jun 2026

Bairun is China’s leading ready-to-drink cocktail (RTD) producer, with RIO brand ranked

No.1 in China’s RTD market for years, and China’s largest whisky producer by capacity and

maturing-cask inventory, according to Euromonitor and the company’s 2025 annual report. Implied upside +37.3%

Considering the volume ramp-up of new RTD products and ongoing channel optimization, as

well as the potential for the whisky business to emerge as a second growth curve, we Market Cap (USD mn) 2,198.3

forecast 2026-28F revenue of CNY3,255mn/CNY3,575mn/CNY3,922mn and net profit of ADT (USD mn) 41.0

CNY730mn/826mn/935mn. We value the company at 28x 2026F P/E, a discount to its 10-

year historical P/E median. Based on 2026F EPS of CNY0.70, we derive a TP of CNY19.63,

implying 37.3% upside. The stock currently trades at 20.4x 2026F P/E. Over the past month Relative performance chart

(as of 25 June 2026), Bairun has underperformed the CSI 300 by 23.5pp, reflecting weak

consumer sector sentiment and investor concerns over the payback period of its proposed % Price CSI300

whisky capacity expansion, in our view. Key price catalysts: stronger-than-expected RTD 28

revenue in 2Q-3Q26 and faster expansion of whisky retail coverage. Key downside risks: 13

weaker-than-expected new product sales, weaker whisky commercialization, weaker -1

demand recovery, raw material price volatility and food safety issues.

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