Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Croda (CRDA.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Sales Growth (%) 4.4 3.8 4.7 4.7

EBITDA Margin % (%) 23.3 24.6 26.0 27.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Organic growth RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Bolt-on acquisitions and new technology Weak GBP and lower raw material prices

Capital allocation and balance sheet optionality Consumer Care innovation cycle Sales / 1,765

Personal care consumer trends Life Science DD% trial growth + Wins Revenue 1,732 1,843

Life Sciences portfolio Cash returns and M&A (£, mn) 1,773

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Strong GBP 434

EBITDA 0-10% Latin America Rising competition and price pressure 395 486

(£, mn)

0-10% MEA Slowdown in healthcare cycle/regulatory 435

0-10% Mainland China hurdles

0-10% UK Collapse in Consumer Care innovation/launch

323 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland cycle EBIT 10-20% 249 337 China and India (£, mn)

20-30% North America 312

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 30-40% Europe ex UK

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 80.6% 154.5

EPS

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x (p) 153.3 173.0

157.9

HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

MS ALPHA MODELS

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

4/5 3 Month exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MOST Horizon inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /