China Sportswear: Stock implications on three scenarios of Nike China‘s online strategy

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China Sportswear: Stock implications on three scenarios of Nike China‘s online strategy

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28 Jun 2026 17:12:03 ET │ 10 pages

China Sportswear

Stock implications on three scenarios of Nike China’s online strategy

CITI’S TAKE

In our view, Topsports‘ continuous share price decline last Fri (after its

clarification announcement on Thur night, see Citi’s Jun 25 note) indicates

the market’s pessimistic expectation that Nike will terminate its online

distributorship with its top China retailers (i.e., Topsports will lose its

entire Nike’s online biz, which represents ~22% of group sales). We Xiaopo Wei, CFAAC

anticipate Nike to give some color on its future China online distribution +852-2501-2472

strategy upon 4QFY26 results on morning of July 1, HKT, with three likely xiaopo.wei@citi.com

scenarios (detailed below). If Nike confirms its intention to terminate

Vincent Young

China retailers’ online distributorship, we expect positive stock

+852-2501-2738

implication on Chinese & other int’l sports brands (including Anta/Puma vincent.young@citi.com

China, Li Ning, Adidas China) and negative stock implication on Nike

China eco-system companies. If Nike reiterates its collaboration with top

China retailers for online distribution, we expect a strong rally of

Topsports and positive implication on other Nike China eco-system

companies.

Scenario 1: Indicating termination of China retailers’ online distributorship –If Nike

intends to execute the strategy that the market has priced in for Topsports’ shares,

we expect Nike to operationally lose market shares in China in 27E, with positive

stock implication on Chinese & other int’l sports brands (incl, Anta/Puma China, Li

Ning, Adidas China) and negative stock implication on Nike China eco-system

companies.