Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd | Asia Pacific: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd | Asia Pacific: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Aptus-ValueAptusHousingValueFinanceHousingIndia Ltd (APTS.NS)Finance India Ltd

(APTS.NS)Attractive valuations backed by strong ROE; OW

PRICE TARGET Rs395.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Probability weighted 85% base, 10% bear and 5% bull; Residual income model. Skew to bear ▪Aptus Value is uniquely positioned among

case reflects current geopolitical uncertainty. affordable HFCs, with a greater proportion

We value the business over three phases: a five-year high-growth period, a 10-year maturity of high-yielding secured non-housing loans

period and a terminal period. owing to its NBFC subsidiary and a higher

Key assumptions: Cost of equity 13.30% (beta 1.2x, risk-free rate 6.75%, market risk premium proportion of fixed rate loans.

of 5.5%), terminal growth rate 6%. ▪This drives its high NIMs and segment

leading ROE of ~20% at a very low D/E of Rs353.59

~1.6x.

Consensus Price Target Distribution Rs288.00 Rs486.00 secured loan book adds MS PT ▪Fully

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates defensiveness in the context of macro

uncertainty.

▪The stock is very attractively valued, on a

historical and relative basis.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

INR

94% Overweight

Rs590.00Rs590.00(+122.56%)Rs590.00(+122.56%)(+122.56%)

0% Equal-weight

600 6% Underweight

MS Rating

450 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Rs395.00Rs395.00(+49.00%)Rs395.00(+49.00%)(+49.00%)

300 Risk Reward Themes

Rs265.10Rs265.10Rs265.10

Pricing Power: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

150 Rs205.00Rs205.00(-22.67%)Rs205.00(-22.67%)(-22.67%)

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target