The J.P. Morgan View: War Premium Unwinds: Oil Down, USD Up, Constructive Equities and EM Carry

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The J.P. Morgan View: War Premium Unwinds: Oil Down, USD Up, Constructive Equities and EM Carry

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

27 June 2026

The J.P. Morgan View

War Premium Unwinds: Oil Down, USD Up,

Constructive Equities and EM Carry

• Our 2H26 outlook for resilient growth following the energy-driven supply Cross Asset Strategy

AC shock was further validated this week, with June DM flash PMIs now Fabio Bassi

consistent with growth close to trend through midyear, unwinding the drag (44-20) 7134-1989

from the Middle East conflict. fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Brent prices took another leg down this week, fully unwinding the Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

richening since the conflict started and in line with pre-conflict levels. With (1-212) 622-3601

OECD commercial inventories drawdowns less-than-expected and larger- dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com

than-expected demand losses, we now anticipate less upward pressure on J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

oil prices; we forecast Brent averaging $86/bbl in 3Q26 and $80/bbl in Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

4Q26, exiting 2026 at $78/bbl, and averaging $64/bbl in 2027. (44-20) 7134-7815

nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com

• Cheaper energy prices will reduce pressure on headline inflation but will J.P. Morgan Securities plc

also support the growth outlook by partly unwinding the squeeze on Mika Inkinen

household real incomes. This dynamic should leave only modest and (44-20) 7742 6565

selective hiking across DM central banks, with less pressure on EM central mika.j.inkinen@jpmorgan.com

banks to tighten financial conditions. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• The end of the Middle East conflict, despite the uncertainty around the Jainik(44-20) 3493-0443Mody, CFA