Mexico weekly: An upbeat week for economic activity

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Mexico weekly: An upbeat week for economic activity

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

26 June 2026

Mexico weekly

An upbeat week for economic activity

See our full research on Economics: Mexico EM, Economics Research

Gabriel Lozano

• After a strong-data week on economic activity, we now expect 2Q GDP up (52-55) 5540-9558

5.5%saar and full-year growth at 1.2% gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• We remain cautious in terms of domestic demand dynamics and BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

particularly investment Santiago Homberg Saury

• However, external demand is gaining momentum (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

• Next week’s June surveys, PMIs and May remittances in focus J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

It was a busy week in terms of data, but it was undoubtedly a positive one. Banxico

delivered no surprises and held rates at 6.5% in a neutral statement at its first

meeting since it signaled the end of the easing cycle in May. The decision came

after welcome news on inflation and growth earlier in the week. CPI for the 1H of

June contracted 0.11%2w/2w, leaving the annual print well within Banxico’s target

range at 3.55%oya. The decline was driven by an unwinding of supply-side

pressures within fruits and vegetables inflation. On growth, the April GDP proxy

increased more than expected, rising 1.2%samr, boosted by a 7.6%samr surge in

construction, although growth in services was also robust. Finally, May trade data

details were also strong. As a result, we are revising 2026 growth from 1% to

1.2%y/y.

Next week, the streak of positive data is expected to continue. May remittances are

forecast to increase 2.6%oya, while the June IMEF manufacturing and non-