Evonik (EVKn.DE): Beat & raise - largely expected but not to be dismissed

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Evonik (EVKn.DE): Beat & raise - largely expected but not to be dismissed

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26 Jun 2026 07:24:14 ET │ 11 pages

Evonik (EVKn.DE)

Beat & raise - largely expected but not to be dismissed

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Evonik announced earlier today that 2Q EBITDA is expected at €600–

650m, clearly ahead of consensus of ~€600m. The beat is driven by Price (26 Jun 26 09:41) €15.99

Middle East-related supply disruptions, most visibly in the more cyclical Target price €20.00

Advanced Technologies segment, where the sharp increase in methionine Expected share price return 25.1%

prices has been well documented. However, discussions with the Expected dividend yield 5.5%

company suggest that the strength was not purely price-driven. Volumes Expected total return 30.6%

were materially stronger, up mid-single digits YoY versus consensus at

Market Cap €7,451M ~+1%, with most business units contributing. Management has also

US$8,481M raised full-year EBITDA guidance to €2.0–2.2bn, with VA consensus

slightly below the midpoint. Importantly, the 2Q result already

incorporates higher bonus accruals for the full-year, implying a stronger

underlying run-rate and helping to address potential 2H earnings Sebastian Satz, CFAAC

concerns. Free cash flow - one of Evonik’s relative strengths - is also set to +44-203-569-3662

increase materially YoY. sebastian.satz@citi.com

Ranulf Orr, CFA

Implications — The 2Q beat was relatively broad-based and not solely driven by +44-20-7986-3922

methionine, where prices have started to ease from peak levels but remain very high

ranulf.orr@citi.com

in a historical context. Near-term supply/demand dynamics here should remain

supportive. Combined with a higher-than-expected run-rate, risks to 2026 Omi Pallavi

consensus forecasts remain skewed to the upside.