First Solar: The 232 trade - pushbacks to our initiation

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Solar: The 232 trade - pushbacks to our initiation

Sunaina Ocalan .+1 917 344 8503 sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com 26 June 2026

EXHIBIT 7: We gross up solar capacity that is historically underestimated by the EIA database, but at a more

cautious pace than historical data implies, to account for macro headwinds such as potential tariffs that would

allow FSLR to gain market share

Source: EIA, Bernstein analysis and estimates

We believe that even with growing share of a growing market, FSLR’s margins would need to improve in order to make up for

the loss of 45x tax credits after 2030 and justify the current valuation. We give them credit for their contracted backlog (worth ~

$10/sh in our view) and value the potential for more TOPCon licensing deals at $9/sh.

EXHIBIT 8: We value FSLR on a SOTP basis and arrive at a TP of $217/sh

SOTP Valuation

27/28 Gross margin less tax credits 49

45x tax credits 111.4

Backlog 9.68

TOPCon Patent Optionality 9.4

Cash and other 37.3

TP using SOTP ($/sh) 217

Source: Bernstein analysis and estimates

A quick note on the tech moat:

FSLR Thin film technology

CdTe has benefits over C-Si: manufacturing of CdTe panels is more streamlined (and faster) and uses less energy than

traditional C-Si panels. In C-Si modules, discrete solar cells are arranged in strings and placed between the encapsulants, vs.

in CdTe it’s a monolithic layer that is deposited directly on single sheets of glass. CdTe has high durability, and works better at

higher temperatures. The CdTe supply chain is all sourced in the U.S., minimizing risk and tariffs, However, from an efficiency

perspective, the highest efficiency CdTe panel is ~23% compared to the highest efficiency C-Si panel at ~27%. FSLR’s series 6

is at 19%, series 7 is at 19.3%

AMERICAS ENERGY & TRANSITION 5