China State Construction (3311): Lowering PT on softer China infra momentum

研报英文原文证据摘录

China State Construction (3311): Lowering PT on softer China infra momentum

Asia Pacific Equity Research

26 June 2026

China State Construction

Neutral

(3311) 3311.HK, 3311 HK

Price (26 Jun 26): HK$7.02

Lowering PT on softer China infra momentum

▼ Price Target (Dec-27): HK$8.00

Prior (Dec-26): HK$9.00

China CSCI remains a Neutral, with income support offsetting softer China

growth visibility. We revise our price target to HK$8.0, down 11%, and Infrastructure, Industrials &

roll forward the PT end-date to Dec-27, reflecting weaker sentiment Transport

ACtowards traditional infrastructure names and a softer China domestic Jenny Qiu, CFA

infrastructure Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) backdrop. Our earnings (852) 2800 8503

estimates are unchanged, and we continue to expect no earnings growth jenny.qiu@jpmorgan.com

in 2026E, leaving the investment case more yield-led than growth-led. Karen Li, CFA

We do not move to Underweight, as the stock’s ~9% dividend yield (852) 2800-8589 karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

provides a valuation floor. The dividend yield spread versus the US 10- Sunny Su

year government bond yield is now around 550bps, notably above the (852) 2800 8551

c280bps historical average, which we believe should help anchor sunny.su@jpmorgan.com

valuation even as re-rating upside remains limited. Mufan Shi

(852) 2800-8502

• China infrastructure softness creates a less supportive backdrop. mufan.shi@jpmorgan.com

China infrastructure FAI has weakened materially in recent months, J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

with May 2026 infrastructure FAI contracting 9% Y/Y after a similar

decline in April. The contraction appears partly driven by slower- Style Exposure

than-expected front-loading of government bond issuance and fiscal