Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Update

June 26, 2026 08:57 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MC&D International Investment Group Ltd | Asia Stephen Cheung, CFA

Pacific Equity Analyst

Stephen.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0385

What’s Changed

C&D International Investment Group Ltd (1908.HK) From To

Price Target HK$21.18 HK$19.30

C&D International Investment Group Ltd (1908.HK, 1908

Bull Case HK$24.44 HK$22.27

HK)

Base Case HK$21.18 HK$19.30

Bear Case HK$13.04 HK$11.88 China Property | China

Updated Components Stock Rating Overweight

EPS Industry View In-Line

Price target HK$19.30

Investment Thesis

Shr price, close (Jun 26, 2026) HK$12.85

52-Week Range HK$19.19-12.31

Risk Reward for C&D International Investment Group Ltd Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (Rmb)** 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8

(1908.HK) has been updated Prior EPS (Rmb)** - 1.7 1.9 2.0

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

Reason for change framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We lower our 2026-28E EPS to factor in:

• Weaker property sales (-2% y-y in 2026), given renewed weakness in the

overall physical market since mid-May (especially in luxury housing). This

leads us to lower our 2026-27 revenue by ~2% each.

• Slower margin expansion (cut 0.1-0.3ppt for 2026-27) due to weaker-than-

expected home prices.

• Larger asset impairment losses, reflecting potentially faster m-m home

prices declines in 3Q amid cooling property sales.

• We cut our core profits by 14% in 2026 (to Rmb3.3bn), 14% in 2027 (to

Rmb3.8bn), and 10% in 2028 (to Rmb4.3bn). Our numbers are 11%, 7% and

3% below Bloomberg consensus.

• We trim our price target by 9%, to HK$19.30/share, to reflect the above

earnings changes and latest land purchases.