Crude back to pre-war; what to buy/sell?

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Crude back to pre-war; what to buy/sell?

India | Equity Strategy EquityJuneResearch26, 2026

STRATEGY NOTECrude back to pre-war; what to buy/sell?

Brent Crude has now moved down to the same level when the Iran war

started. MSCI India is down by 2%. We look at the stocks under coverage Exhibit 1 - Brent crude oil price trend

(253 stocks) and see which stocks have OPFed / UPFed since the Feb 27th. 130120 Brent Crude oil (US$/bbl)

prices are close toOn the back of stock performances since then and basis our fundamental 110100 Crudepre-war levels of

views, we highlight cement, Bajaj Finserv, oil mktg cos and TVS as the key 9080 US$72/bbl

buy ideas which funding source being pharma exporters and capital market 7060

volatility plays viz. BSE. 50 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

.

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

Key BUY ideas that have UPFed since Feb 27th (mkt cap >US$5bn)

Cement: Most cost headwinds now appear behind for the sector. However, FY27 earnings•

could see some residual cuts due to timing mismatches. Our preferred pick is Ultratech

which have UPFed by 7ppt since 27th Feb'26.

Bajaj Finserv: After a 9ppt UPF to MSCI India, we prefer Bajaj Finserv over Bajaj Finance; in•

strong market phases, holding company discounts tend to narrow as investors view them

as a cheaper proxy. At Finserv, core profits remain robust, with an estimated ~23% CAGR

over FY26–29, and the current holdco discount of ~27% vs. avg 17%, makes valuations

attractive.

Oil Marketing cos.: We continue to highlight BPCL and IOCL as our preferred ideas,•

supported by a favourable backdrop of lower crude prices and resilient gross refining

margins. BPCL/IOCL have UPFed MSCI India by 17ppt/21ppt respectively.