Week Ahead in Latin America | Latin America: Colombia: Time for Execution

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Week Ahead in Latin America | Latin America: Colombia: Time for Execution

Idea

June 26, 2026 07:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMWeek Ahead in Latin America | Latin America Nicolas Eterovic

Economist

Colombia: Time for Execution Nicolas.Eterovic@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+ +1 212 761-1245

Julia Lobato Barbosa

This week, we focus on Colombia’s post-election outlook, EconomistJulia.Lobato.Barbosa@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6016

highlighting key challenges for the incoming administration and Fernando D Sedano

main signposts for policy execution. Next week focus on BanRep Chief LatAm Ex-Brazil Economist

Fernando.Sedano@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6605

monetary policy meeting, Brazil job creation and primary budget, Ana Madeira

Peru CPI, and activity data for Argentina and Chile EconomistAna.Madeira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9582

Thiago A. Machado, CFA

Colombia in focus… Abelardo de la Exhibit 1: The new administration Economist

Espriella won the presidential runoff, will inherit a nominal deficit of ~7-8% Thiago.Machado@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6249

shifting Colombia toward a more of GDP and primary deficit of ~3.5%

orthodox policy direction but with a 2%

narrow governing mandate. We argue 0%

-2%

that the next phase is about execution -4%

and discuss the five key challenges facing -6%

the incoming administration: restoring -10%-8%

fiscal credibility, delivering a politically Dec-10 Jun-12NominalDec-13balanceJun-15(as % ofDec-16GDP) Jun-18 Dec-19PrimaryJun-21balanceDec-22(as % ofJun-24GDP) Dec-25

feasible fiscal adjustment, governing with Source: Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público, DANE,

Morgan Stanley LatAm Economics

limited congressional support, converting

improved sentiment into stronger