Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Hoshino Resorts REIT (3287.T)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Apr 2026 Apr 2027e Apr 2028e Apr 2029e

RevPAR (operated by Hoshino

48,863 48,805 48,986 49,522

Resorts, JPY)

RevPAR (operated by outside

10,776 8,356 8,647 8,552

operators, JPY)

EPS (JPY) 12,894 13,621 13,417 13,690

DPS (JPY) 12,909 13,620 13,410 13,690

NAV/S (JPY) 314,191 323,560 334,160 341,570

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Rising ADR, RevPAR & GOP margin for portfolio RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Apr 2027e

hotels Further rise in RevPAR amid better

Enhanced portfolio margins due to sponsor supply/demand Sales / 19.0

support Sponsor support Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Property purchases leveraging financial cushion (¥, bn) consensus data for this metric

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Higher property yields on rising

rents/occupancy

Acq. of property at a discount

Large interest rate cuts Net income

100% Japan Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying (¥, bn) RISKS TO DOWNSIDE consensus data for this metric

Fall in RevPAR amid worse supply/demand

Capital increases at a discount to NAV

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

Lower property yields on falling 13,620.0View explanation of regional hierarchies here

rents/occupancy DPS

Acq. of property at a premium (¥) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

MS ALPHA MODELS Large interest rate hikes consensus data for this metric

2/5 3 Month OWNERSHIP POSITIONING MOST Horizon 13,621.0

EPS

Inst. Owners, % Active 49% Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplyingSource: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is (¥)

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research consensus data for this metric

Quintile