Spire Inc: Start Me Up; Regulated Transformation In-Flight; MO Execution Critical; Moving to Neutral Rating and $85 Price Target from Not Rated

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Spire Inc: Start Me Up; Regulated Transformation In-Flight; MO Execution Critical; Moving to Neutral Rating and $85 Price Target from Not Rated

a Prev Cur Δ

Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 5.22 4.05 -22.4%

credible re-rating path, but await Missouri rate case clarity and Tennessee Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 5.38 5.53 2.6%

integration proof points before turning more constructive.

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Sep)

• Missouri regulatory reset carries meaningful upside; await incremental Adj. EPS ($)

clarity. The FY26 weather-driven margin shortfall and associated AAO filing 2025A 2026E 2027E

(hearing scheduled for September) weigh on near-term sentiment, with Q1 1.34

outcome timing and commission receptivity critical to overall execution. SR’s Q2 3.60

Q3 0.01

planned fall rate case filing includes the company’s first-ever future test year Q4 (0.47)

filing in MO, and carries strong re-rating potential as the structural shift pulls FY 4.44 4.05 5.53

capital recovery forward and reduces regulatory lag. Management points to

Style Exposure above-trend EPS growth in FY28 upon resolution, with a likely re-basing of the

5–7% growth target. We view this as the central swing factor for the stock in

the medium term.

• Portfolio simplification strengthens the earnings foundation. The exit of

Marketing, Storage, and Mississippi removes meaningful earnings variability

and concentrates SR around three constructive, rate-base-driven jurisdictions.

Management funded the Tennessee acquisition without common equity, while

lowering the FFO/debt target to 14–15%, consistent with the reduced business

risk profile. Equity needs remain de minimis ($0–$50mm annually through

FY28), adding shareholder return upside to SR's 23 year dividend growth track

record.