Durable Goods Driven By Cash Flow, Financing--And Lagged Demand

研报英文原文证据摘录

Durable Goods Driven By Cash Flow, Financing--And Lagged Demand

arters), and a longer . Wealth × Confidence 14% +0.29σ -3% -0.13σ 8% +0.09σ Source: Federal Reserve, Jefferies Estimates

(~8 quarter) lag to credit conditions operating through housing activity (cf. here). Furniture and

appliances are more directly tied to household replacement dynamics (which often persist for Chart 3 - Key Model Structures

Durablesseveral quarters), and also have significant lags to home sales (~6 quarters) and mortgages. Oddly, Category Adj. R² Type Direct Drivers Mediators Moderators Key Lags Mechanism (aggregate) ~0.83 ImpulseBroad Income, TDSP,up Pent- Housing Balance Sheet quarters1–2 Cash-flowsheet+ balance

Mortgage rates,

House Prices, — NW Surprisex Sentiment (mixed)0–8 FinancingWealth/Confidenceconstraints +we find a smaller net lag for mortgages than for home sales, because changes in mortgages affect AutosHousing ~0.94~0.69 ConstraintDemandsystemDirect Income,Credit,Income,Pent-upRates, Aggregate durables Wagex Sentiment× TDSP, NW 4–8 FinancingSentimentelasticityDrag + Pent-up

both home turnover and remodelling activity. Furnitureappliances / ~0.93 Derivativesystem Income,up (Overheating)Rates, Pent- Housing turnover NW Surprisex Sentiment 0–6 HousingReplacementTurnovercycleLag+

.

Source: Federal Reserve, Jefferies Estimates

The Post-Pandemic Cycle: The post-COVID episode fits this framework as a two-stage cycle.

The initial boom was driven by simultaneous increases in income, wealth, and pent-up demand Chart 4 Feature- Key SensitivitiesAutos BasedHousingOn OurFurniture/AppliancesModel

under low borrowing costs. The subsequent slowdown reflected rising interest rates, reduced DemandRate sensitivityNarrative LaggedDirect(~4–5q) ConstrainedImmediate LaggedDerived(~4q)