Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Commercial Metals Company (CMC.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Aug 2025 Aug 2026e Aug 2027e Aug 2028e

Steel average realized price ($/st) 842 974 995 934

Reported Scrap cost ($/st) 334 356 367 362

Steel Shipments (kst) 3,122 3,031 3,493 3,809

North America Segment EBITDA/t

120 174 212 203

($/st)

Europe Segment EBITDA/t ($/st) 21 54 69 76

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

CMC's key earnings drivers are rebar and MBQ RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Aug 2026e

prices net of scrap costs Stronger demand from construction leads to

steel prices / metal margins overshooting MS' Sales / 9,224

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE forecasts. Revenue 9,013 9,371

(US$, mm) 9,163 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Excess capacity, weaker demand, and/or an 20-30% Europe ex UK

increase in import penetration leads to steel 1,368

70-80% North America EBITDA

prices / metal margins undershooting MS' 1,257 1,386

(US$, mm)

forecasts. 1,336

CMC's new capacity struggles to ramp-up

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

and/or comes in above overbudget and

View explanation of regional hierarchies here 702

delayed. Net income

591 788

MS ALPHA MODELS 717

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

4/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month Inst. Owners, % Active 43% 6.26

EPS BEST Horizon MOST Horizon 5.97 7.04 HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x (US$)

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is 6.52 HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.