Earnings visibility moderates and partner risk premia rises; PT cut to R15.75

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Earnings visibility moderates and partner risk premia rises; PT cut to R15.75

UpdateMrevenue, has resumed ACS services after regulatory disruption, but we now apply a

wider risk lens to MNO partner behaviour and regulatory read-across across other

markets.

We cut FY26e/FY27e/FY28e dHEPS by c7%/0%/7% and now see dHEPS growth

for FY26e/FY27e/FY28e at +54%/+27%/+19%, respectively. Downgrades mainly

reflect lower disbursements, regulatory uncertainty following Nigeria’s digital-

lending intervention and a higher risk of MNO partners insourcing credit-decisioning

and administration capabilities. Our current model assumes FY25-28e CAGRs of 13%

for disbursements, 18% for revenue, 21% for adj. EBITDA and c32% for dEPS. FY26e

is now below management’s revenue and adj. EBITDA growth guidance, but above

the net-income guide. We forecast FY26e revenue growth of 22%Y to $323m and

adj. EBITDA growth of 22%Y to $140m, below guidance of >30% for both metrics.

We forecast net income of $69m, up 61%Y, above the >40% guidance, partly

reflecting the non-repeat of FY25 listing and IFRS 2-related costs.

MFS remains the core growth engine, but also changes the cost and credit-risk

mix. We forecast MFS disbursements to exceed ACS in FY26e and rise to c55% of

group disbursements, supported by new deployments in markets including Malaysia,

the Philippines, Kenya and Mozambique, and growth in Pakistan, Ghana, Uganda and

DRC. ACS remains material, but we forecast its share of disbursements to fall from

58% in FY25 to 45% in FY26e and 40% by FY28e. Deploying in the M-Pesa

environment in 2026 (Kenya, Mozambique, as flagged by management in Mar-26

results call) would be a welcome stock catalyst.

Unmodelled upside remains meaningful but less visible. Finergi adds access to