Ferrari NV (RACE IM): Hold: Back to normal service

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ferrari NV (RACE IM): Hold: Back to normal service

Equities ● Automobiles

25 June 2026

Valuation Risks

Current price: Methodology: We value Ferrari using a blended 50:50 multiples-based sum-of-the- Downside risks:

Ferrari

EUR312.40 parts method based on 12 month forward estimates and target multiples and DCF i) Unsuccessful product launches: Ferrari relies RACE IM valuation and arrive at an unchanged target price of EUR330.0. The main drivers heavily on new product launches and personalisation. Target price:

are: Demand for either that is below our expectations poses EUR330.00

downside risks. Considerably lower mix could also pose Discounted cash flow (50% weight) implies a fair value of EUR365 (previously

Hold Upside: downside risks to our forecasts. EUR335) per share. We assume a WACC of 7.8%, based on a risk-free rate of

+5.6% ii) Stricter emission regulations: Any change in

4.25%, equity risk premium of 4.0%, and beta of 0.91 (all unchanged). We also regulations that requires a faster transition to

assume a terminal growth rate of 5.5% (previously: 5.1%) reflecting stronger electrification could pose downside risks. Also, a move

price/mix evolution and terminal EBIT margin of 33.0% (unchanged). to autonomous driving happening faster than we

Multiples-based valuation method gives a fair value of EUR290.0 (previously currently expect, leading major cities to limit or prohibit

EUR325). Our 12m forward target multiples are 19.4x EV/EBITDA, 33.7x PE, and driving could pose downside risks for Ferrari.

2.7% FCF yield (previously: 21.6x EV/EBITDA, 37.7x PE, and 2.3% FCF yield). iii) Cost inflation: Higher content levels to support

further innovation create a hurdle for pricing if Ferrari Given similarities in business, we base our target multiples on the consensus