G10 Rates Chartpack: June 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

G10 Rates Chartpack: June 2026

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Rates Date

25 June 2026

Fixed Income Blog

Mingyue Xin

Summary Strategist

This report summarises key macroeconomic metrics and frameworks that we are +44-20-754-10002

closely monitoring. We provide a regular update on the evolution of developed

market (DM) rates markets in the recent past. Considering the uncertainty

surrounding trade and fiscal policy, we begin by comparing budget balances and

current account balances across major DM countries. We then analyse the

distribution of outstanding bonds by investor type to assess the proportion held by

price-insensitive investors, such as domestic central banks. Moving to market

pricing, we examine pricing trends of major central banks, followed by recent market

movements in key rates products. Finally, we update our cross-country PCA of term

premia, as well as the seasonality of selected rates instruments. Definitions,

methodologies, links to our key views, and recent publications are provided in the

appendix.

Despite the front contract of oil futures now returning to their levels before the

Middle East conflict began, the interest rate market did not manage to return to its

pre-conflict level. Although markets have been repricing the likelihood and number

of hikes/cuts in recent weeks, most of the 2y, 10y and 30y yields are still above the

pre-conflict levels (with the long end of Sweden and New Zealand as outliers).

Valuation-wise, 10-year and 30-year Gilts remain the top two cheapest bonds in the

cross-country mapping with Net International Investment Position (NIIP) amidst

the political news flows. The 5s10s term premium for Gilts also looks high.

Meanwhile, 10-year Swiss bonds and USTs are still among the top three richest