Channel checks: Investor sentiment has room to improve with next catalyst

研报英文原文证据摘录

Channel checks: Investor sentiment has room to improve with next catalyst

/26E 0.71 0.71

(of which volume c2% and pricing depending on inflation trends) vs mid term guidance

12/27E 0.83 0.79

of +3-5% y/y with growth being driven by emerging markets (c50% of group sales) and

12/28E 0.92 0.87

mild share gains (customer dual sourcing, filler flexibility advantages). Western regions

should be more flattish for SIG on little incremental demand for dairy and juices (in some Joern Iffert, CFA

regions even decreasing categories). On margins, 2025 aseptic carton was close to peak Analyst

and we think rising cost efficiencies (headcount, share services, procurement) could joern.iffert@ubs.com

result in some upside risk to the mid term group EBIT margin guidance of >16.5% (UBSe +41-44-239 88 00

2028E 16.5%, cons. 16.7%). The next CMD is end of October. Marti Queral Ferre, CFA

Analyst

Consensus looks reasonable & view on investor sentiment marti.queral-ferre@ubs.com

+41-44-236 9246

We expect the company to confirm the 2026 guidance of +0-2% y/y (UBSe +1.9%,

cons. +1%) organic sales with an EBIT margin improvement of +0-50bp y/y to 15.7- Patrick Rafaisz, CFA, FRM

16.2% (UBSe 15.9%, cons. 15.8%) which could result in some upside risk to consensus Analyst

patrick.rafaisz@ubs.com

core EBIT estimates of €513m (UBSe €525m). Comps are getting materially easier in H2

+41-44-239 90 66

26E and hence organic sales and margin expansion should accelerate, offering even

room for some upside risk to full year consensus (depends of course also how the

oil/ polymer price develops). Investor sentiment should improve with Q2 26E results

showing operational resilience despite higher raw mat prices.

Valuation: DCF based PT of CHF15

The stock trades on 2027E 16.5x PE which looks compelling to us.