UBS Evidence Lab inside: European weather tracker - hotter, but average rainfall

研报英文原文证据摘录

UBS Evidence Lab inside: European weather tracker - hotter, but average rainfall

-oriented Kuhn Group division. Additionally, we

12/26E 17.70 17.89 1 19.01

anticipate that Bucher has further exposure to the agricultural sector through its

12/27E 17.86 17.93 0 20.94

Hydraulics and Specials segments. As a result, we estimate that Bucher's total

12/28E 18.36 18.37 0 22.63

agriculture-related exposure reaches almost 60% of its orders and sales.

Sebastian Vogel, CFA

Details about our quantitative methodology Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.comHistorically, there has been a significant relationship between weather conditions,

+41-44 239 90 45

specifically temperature and precipitation, and agricultural output. By integrating these

elements with crop prices, we can derive valuable insights into farmers' earnings and Patrick Rafaisz, CFA, FRM

their potential capacity to invest in agricultural machinery, such as equipment produced Analyst

patrick.rafaisz@ubs.com

by Bucher’s Kuhn Group. Consequently, we monitor prevailing weather trends across

+41-44-239 90 66

Europe and leverage both recent and historical data, dating back to 2013, to develop

detailed weather and order forecasts for Kuhn Group for the current year.

Valuation: DCF-derived PT of CHF338/conclusion

To reflect the suggested latest weather-driven demand environment for Bucher's Kuhn

Group, we marginally adjust our FY26/27/28E EPS (UBS adj.) estimates for the company,

on a group level, by 1%/0%/0%. In light of these rather small revisions, we maintain our

DCF-derived price target at CHF338. Nonetheless, in our view, latest seasonal weather

patterns together with likely prospects for the remainder of the season suggest a

continued challenged demand environment for Bucher's Kuhn Group segment in

FY26E.