Fun with Fertilizers

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fun with Fertilizers

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N.A. Chems & Pkg’g Equities

North AmericaFun with Fertilizers

Chemicals, Commodity

Lucas Beaumont

Fun with Fertilizers Highlights Analyst

Review of NPK pricing: We review the latest NPK pricing trends below, within lucas.beaumont@ubs.com

we provide our current price deck (Fig 1) and comparison of estimates vs. cons. (Fig +1-212-713 4809

2), as well as a comp table for UBS’ Fertilizer/Ag coverage (3). Joshua Spector, CFA

Analyst

Nitrogen: QTD pricing trends have softened versus our 2Q estimates (negative for joshua.spector@ubs.com

CF, NTR, LXU), with ammonia modestly below expectations and urea down sharply +1-212-713 6188

(urea tracking at least ~$100/MT below prior estimates and now below cost curve

Nicole Grueneberg

support levels). UAN has held up better and is tracking modestly above estimates,

Associate Analyst

though the this premium is viewed as unsustainable with pricing expected to nicole.grueneberg@ubs.com

follow urea lower. The near term nitrogen market outlook continues to shift more +1-212-713-2469

negatively, now pointing to larger seasonal declines in 3Q that will drive negative

Christopher Perrella

pricing revisions as demand has fallen ahead of expected further pricing declines.

4Q is more debatable, as demand returns later in the year on a more compressed christopher.perrella@ubs.com

timeline, coupled with upside risks to the cost curve (European gas storage below +1-212-713 1443

typical levels) we could see a seasonal rebound in pricing for the fall/spring.

Anojja Shah

Natural Gas: Input cost trends remain generally similar to our UBSe and remain Analyst

supportive for U.S. nitrogen producers as U.S./Canada gas prices have seen a anojja.shah@ubs.com