US Softlines Retail: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Secondary Sneaker Market: May Data a Modest Negative for Nike

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US Softlines Retail: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Secondary Sneaker Market: May Data a Modest Negative for Nike

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US Softlines Retail Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: Secondary Sneaker

Market: May Data a Modest Negative for Nike Retailers, Specialty

Jay Sole

Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

Secondary market prices weakened y/y for Nike, Jordan: +1-212-713 3559

New UBS Evidence Lab data shows Nike brand footwear prices in a secondary sneaker Zuzanna Pusz, CFA

decreased 3.6% in May. Growth turned negative for the first time this year (Fig. 1, > Analyst

Access Dataset). The May growth rate was a ~510 bps deceleration from 1.5% growth zuzanna.pusz@ubs.com

in April. At the same time, Jordan brand prices decreased 4% y/y in May, but this was a +39 027 2100 226

100 bps improvement m/m (Fig. 11). Overall, we view these data points as a modest Robert Krankowski

negative for NKE. We believe Nike still has much work to do in order to return to Analyst

sustainable sales growth with meaningful margin expansion (link). We believe the robert.krankowski@ubs.com

market is still pricing in a solid turnaround. Thus, our rating is Neutral. +44-20-7568 1152

Mauricio Serna, CFA

Secondary market data is a reasonably good proxy for Nike brand momentum: Analyst

The pivotal question around Nike is when will brand momentum rebound? We believe mauricio.serna@ubs.com

the stock price will improve once investors gain confidence Nike's growth rate has +1-212-713 9028

bottomed and will turn “less bad,” with visibility into a return to sustainably positive Natalie Koltermann

growth at some point. Secondary market data suggests that inflection is not here yet. Associate Analyst

natalie.koltermann@ubs.com