US Daily Brief: Today‘s Research – June 25, 2026

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US Daily Brief: Today‘s Research – June 25, 2026

MORNING MEETING SUMMARY

Global Strategy - US 2H 2026 Outlook: AI keeps the cycle alive, but dispersion takes over (Matthew Mish)

SUMMARY: The AI boom remains intact, and credit markets overall can continue Email: matthew.mish@ubs.com

to finance it through 2026. Demand for compute still exceeds supply, hyperscaler Phone: +1-203-719 1242

revenue expectations are rising, and debt markets remain open across IG, HY, and

project finance. However, this is no longer a clean “AI extends the cycle”

narrative. The important nuance for 2H is that AI is creating bifurcation in credit,

extending the cycle for the highest quality issuers while simultaneously

accelerating credit stress further down the quality spectrum. Macro indicators

continue to look stronger than credit fundamentals. Our recession probability has

declined to 19% and our consumer credit cycle gauge has improved. Yet

fundamentals in lower-rated public and private credit are deteriorating, CCC/HY

spread ratio are at all-time wides, and the effects of AI disruption and a higher-for-

longer rate backdrop still lie ahead. This leaves credit firmly in a late-cycle regime:

spreads remain tight due to strong technicals and attractive yields, but the

underlying risk backdrop is deteriorating for lower quality parts of the market.

Micron Technology Inc - Setting The Stage For Re-Rating; Maintain Buy (Timothy Arcuri)

SUMMARY: MU posted yet another beat/raise with guidance at least as good as Rating: Buy

the most bullish investor bogeys we heard pre-call. As we said in our preview Price Target: US$1625

though, this was never really about the numbers per se with the broader debate Price: US1048.51