Electric Revolution: Resilience – In Check. Global EV Forecast, 2026 edition.

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Electric Revolution: Resilience – In Check. Global EV Forecast, 2026 edition.

25 June 2026

Global Autos

Electric Revolution: Resilience – In Check. Global EV Forecast,

2026 edition.

Welcome to the 2026 edition of Bernstein’s Electric Revolution series - our annual cross- Eunice Lee, CFA

+852 2123 2606 sector look at the transformation of the EV landscape. This year, we focus on supply chain

eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com resilience, a theme rising in importance as EV adoption diverges by region and geopolitical

risks intensify. OEMs and suppliers face growing pressure to anticipate, navigate, and

Masahiro Akita recover quickly from disruptions across sourcing, production, and logistics. In this first note

+81 3 6777 6998

masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com of the series, we present our updated Global EV Forecast: Download here.

EV adoption continues to bifurcate across regions against a backdrop of escalating Stephen Reitman

+44 20 7762 5535 geopolitical uncertainty that is stress-testing the automotive supply chain. China retains

stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com dominant control over critical minerals and battery value chain, while rising

geopolitical tensions is increasing supply chain risks around semiconductors,

Harry Martin, CFA software, and data security, etc. China’s export curbs on rare earths and U.S. restrictions +44 20 7676 8965

harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com on AI chips and Chinese software underscore importance of supply chain resilience.

Venugopal Garre China continues to lead despite policy headwinds, and we expect EV sales penetration

+65 6326 7643 (i.e. BEV & PHEV) to rise to c.62% from 53% in 2025. Further growth will likely slow as

venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com it depends on more cautious late adopters, but we remain constructive on the outlook.