Micron Technology (MU US): Buy: Continued earnings surprise from ongoing memory price hikes

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Micron Technology (MU US): Buy: Continued earnings surprise from ongoing memory price hikes

50% of revenue eventually.

52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

Memory shortage to boost earnings continuously. We see: 1) AI factory buildup, 2) 1900.00

slower capacity expansion and, 3) inefficiency in tech migration and capex usage

continuing to boost DRAM and NAND prices, and assume FY4Q operating profit will 950.00

reach USD42bn (+24% q-o-q, up tenfold y-o-y) with sales of USD51bn (+24% q-o-q, 0.00

+354% y-o-y). In particular, HBM price hikes should underpin stronger growth. HBM has 06/25 Target price: 12/251700.00 06/26

been losing its premium to commodity DRAM despite the chip-size penalty; we expect High: 1211.38 Low: 104.88 Current: 1048.51

memory makers to raise HBM3E 12-high prices. A 40-50% HBM4 premium should Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

support an ASP rise of 35% in FY27, supporting OP of USD217bn (+121% y-o-y) with Ricky Seo*

sales of USD265bn (+103% y-o-y). Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and Display The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,

Seoul Securities Branch

Booming agentic AI and CSP capex are driving demand. We see the memory cycle rickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com

resembling the 1990–95 supercycle, with agentic AI expected to lift general-server unit +82 2 3706 8777

shipments by 20%/21% in 2026/27e. AI is also broadening memory demand beyond Han Kil Chang*

Research Analyst, Korea Technology

HBM, supporting USD643bn capex by the top-4 CSPs (+71% y-o-y) in 2026e. In AI data The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,

centres, the AI-to-general server mix should shift to 1:1 from 4–8:1, benefiting general Seoul Securities Branch

han.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com

servers and memory makers. SO-CAMM2, led by NVIDIA Vera CPU, should spread to +822 3706 8750