JPM | Lowering Oil Price Forecasts, Iraq Threatens to Leave OPEC, Energy flows & Feedback, China announces 2030 Energy targets, DXY at 1Y highs & Rates moving higher, lithium thoughts

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JPM | Lowering Oil Price Forecasts, Iraq Threatens to Leave OPEC, Energy flows & Feedback, China announces 2030 Energy targets, DXY at 1Y highs & Rates moving higher, lithium thoughts

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

26 June 2026

JPM | Lowering Oil Price Forecasts, Iraq Threatens to Leave

OPEC, Energy flows & Feedback, China announces 2030 Energy

targets , DXY at 1Y highs & Rates moving higher, lithium thoughts

Anmol Mehta

+852 2800 8896

anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com

Good morning, the pain in China miners continued yesterday (China Non Ferrous -10%, Shandong Gold -8%, CMOC -8%, Zijin

Gold -7%, CHalco -4%) as the market continues to trade these as inverse rate proxies (Has been the case for months). The dollar

reached its highest level in a year yesterday, and several macro/commods folk believe we are in the “early innings” of a potential

rate hike cycle - shying away from mining equities. Fed fund futures are implying 1.4 hikes this year (gold has reacted exactly

inversely, now falling below $4000/oz) and the IPO market tells you the same - Merdeka gold’s HK listing today opened flat; the

same company IPO-ing last year opened +50% and Zijin Gold IPO doubled in a week.

The biggest debates however are in Energy as WTI fell below $70/bbl yesterday giving bulls an arguemnt for “asymmteric

upside” based on inventory replenishment (full feedback below) . Brent /WTI+2% overnight on WSJ reporting that a Singapore

bound tanker was struck in the strait, but really the biggest focus of conversation yesterday was Iraq threatening to leave the

OPEC unless quotas were “significantly increased”. JPM also just wrapped up our Natural Resources conference in the US -

please see compilations from Day 1 and Day 2 here.